The 2023 NFL playoffs where whittled down to four teams on Sunday. In the AFC, fans will be treated to a rematch of last year’s conference-title game as the Cincinnati Bengals visit the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. The Bengals upset the Bills (27-10) in Buffalo as 5.5-point underdogs in the divisional round. The Chiefs held off Jacksonville (27-20) as 9.5-point home favorites.

In the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers both held serve as home favorites to set up a clash between the top-two seeds in the NFC Championship Game. The Eagles dominated the New York Giants (38-7) as 7.5-point chalk. The 49ers covered in a hard-fought 19-12 victory over Dallas as four-point favorites.

While both home teams have opened as favorites in next Sunday’s conference-title games, the margins are slim.

49ers vs. Eagles Odds

The line for the NFC Championship Game actually opened at Eagles -1.5. It grew to 2.5 just minutes after it opened and has stayed there for several hours. But juice is now heavily skewed to Philadelphia (-120), indicating that money is still coming in on the Eagles and the line could move to three flat.

The moneyline shows similar movement. The opening moneyline odds were a narrow -118/+100 in Philly’s favor. As of publication time, that had grown to -144/+122 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The total has dropped significantly, opening at 47 and quickly falling to 45.5.

The early line movement is understandable. While the Eagles are only 9-9 ATS on the year, that number improves dramatically to 7-3 ATS at home. Straight-up, Philly is 7-2 at Lincoln Financial Field. Their most-recent setback at home came in Week 17 against the Saints (20-10) with backup QB Gardner Minshew at the helm. Their only other home loss this season was a stunning 32-21 loss to Washington in Week 10 as 11-point favorites.

The 49ers’ record shows a reverse trend. San Francisco is an exceptional 13-6 ATS on the year, but only 3-4 ATS in true road games. They also won and covered against Arizona (38-10) in a neutral-site game in Mexico City. The Niners have only beaten one playoff team on the road this season: Seattle (21-13) in Week 15.

Both teams skewed slightly to the over. The Eagles are 10-8 over/under after the divisional round, while the 49ers are 10-9.

Bengals vs. Chiefs Odds

While the line was moving toward the home team in the NFC Championship, the opposite was true of the AFC title game. A rematch of last year, the Bengals/Chiefs spread opened at Kansas City -2.5 but immediately moved in favor of the reigning AFC-champion Bengals.

As of Monday morning, the point spread was sitting at just a single point and the moneyline was nearly even (-115/-105 in favor of KC) after the Chiefs opened at -134.

The total had shown an even more dramatic decline than the 49ers/Eagles matchup. Oddsmakers opened the Cincinnati/Kansas City total at a relatively high 50.5. Ten hours later, it had dropped a full three points to 47.5.

The thinking behind the original total is fairly obvious. The Week 13 regular-season meeting between the teams - played in Cincinnati - ended 27-24 in favor of the Bengals (51 total points). Last season’s AFC Championship finished with the exact same scoreline, albeit in overtime.

Bengals crushing the number on the road, Chiefs struggle at home

Against the spread, Cincinnati has the second-best mark in the NFL this season, now sitting at 13-5 ATS after easily covering in the divisional round as 5.5-point underdogs to Buffalo. They have been even better on the road (8-2 ATS) than at home (7-3). The Bengals have won ten in a row straight-up and gone 8-2 ATS in that span. Both ATS losses came against division-rival Baltimore by half a point.

The highly-thought-of Chiefs, who have been forced to cover large numbers on a weekly basis, are a dismal 6-11-1 ATS this season and just 2-6-1 ATS at home. KC bettors will feel spurned after Saturday’s ATS loss to the Jags as 9.5-point favorites. Jacksonville kicked a field goal with under 30 seconds to play to trim the lead to seven and get the backdoor cover.

The teams are a combined 15-20-1 over/under on the year, with Kansas City going 8-10 and Cincinnati 7-10-1. Both teams stayed well under their totals in the divisional round. The Bengals/Bills total closed at 48.5 and stayed under by 11.5 points. The Jaguars/Chiefs total closed at 52 flat and stayed under by five points.

Both conference-championship games will take place next Sunday (Jan. 29) with 49ers/Eagles kicking off at 3 p.m. EST at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, followed by Bengals/Chiefs at 6:30 p.m. EST at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.

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